From ‘ReArm Europe’ to ‘Readiness 2030’: the EU can strengthen its presence in the Black Sea
The Black Sea region becomes the focus of a major strategic shift in the context of the launch of the ambitious ‘ReArm Europe’ initiative recently proposed by the European Commission. The programme, renamed ‘Readiness 2030’, was unveiled by President Ursula von der Leyen on 4 March 2025, aims to mobilise some €800 billion to develop European military capabilities in direct response to geopolitical threats in the east of the continent, amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the uncertainty of transatlantic relations.
Since 2014, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea, the Black Sea has turned into a strategically sensitive area. The full invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has dramatically heightened the regional risks, putting riparian countries and Western alliances on alert. In this context, “Readiness 2030” responds to urgent challenges: strengthening regional security, reducing dependence on the US and developing an autonomous European defence industry.
Romania positions itself as one of the main beneficiaries of the “Readiness 2030” programme, with a clear interest in strengthening NATO’s and the EU’s eastern flank. Bucharest aims to modernise its naval and air forces, develop military infrastructure such as the Mihail Kogălniceanu base, and strengthen its defensive capabilities by acquiring drones, anti-aircraft systems and modern ships.
Bulgaria aims to strengthen coastal security and energy infrastructure. Sofia plans to use European funds to modernise its air fleet, in particular by acquiring F-16 jets and modern military vessels to effectively defend its maritime area.
Ukraine, which is at the centre of the current crisis, sees ‘Readiness 2030’ as a vital tool for the rapid and massive reconstruction of its armed forces in cooperation with EU partner states. Kiev urgently needs to rebuild its destroyed maritime fleet and develop the anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems essential for survival and to deter Russian aggression.
Turkey is pursuing its own strategic interest to control the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits in the context of the Montreux Convention. Ankara continues to autonomously develop advanced military capabilities, such as Bayraktar drones and modern submarines, balancing its relations with Russia and NATO allies.
Georgia has vital strategic access through its ports and is deeply interested in deepening its energy partnership, which would allow the current authorities in Tbilisi to use this advantage to avoid opposition support from European and Western states.
The Republic of Moldova, even if not a direct neighbour, becomes a key player through its geographical proximity and strategic vulnerability. Chisinau aims to strengthen its resilience by developing its own defensive capabilities, particularly in cyber defence and crisis management, and is counting on European support to modernise its limited military infrastructure.
Russia aims to maintain its hegemony in the Black Sea basin through the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, countering any European military moves that could diminish its strategic influence.
‘Readiness 2030’ represents a significant opportunity for EU Member States in the Black Sea region. Romania and Bulgaria can become regional hubs of the European defence industry by developing joint naval and air defence projects, benefiting from substantial European funding.
Ukraine, with massive European support, could quickly and efficiently rebuild its naval fleet and military infrastructure damaged by the war, and Georgia could benefit from some advantages, depending on political developments.
The Republic of Moldova, although neutral, could obtain funding and technological support for cyber security and the logistical infrastructure needed for crisis management and preventive territorial defence.
It is also essential to understand the impact on the Montreux Convention and Turkey’s strategic control of naval transit. Effective EU-NATO co-operation in the context of ‘Readiness 2030’ is crucial for regional security and can generate either significant synergies or tensions between allies.
Regional energy security, critical infrastructure and cyber defence are other strategic areas targeted by this initiative. Neighbouring states will also have to invest significantly in protecting these vital assets, often targets of hybrid attacks.
We should not underestimate the risk of a regional arms race generated by the implementation of the Readiness 2030 initiative. Limited administrative capacities and internal political differences in the littoral countries could slow down the effective implementation of the programme and create additional vulnerabilities.
The Readiness 2030 Programme is a key opportunity to ensure security and stability in the Black Sea region by providing a chance for littoral states to strengthen their defence capabilities and strategic infrastructure. The success of the initiative depends fundamentally on political coherence, effective regional cooperation and the integration of joint projects into a unified European defence strategy.
A few days after the announcement of the launch of ReArm Europe, the European Union has opted to refrain from “rearming”, at least in terminology, and has redesigned its plan to strengthen its defence by 2030, following comments from some member states, the European Commission has confirmed.
The “Readiness 2030” plan was unveiled in its guidelines on 4 March by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. But this willingness to put the Union on a war footing was not to the liking of some countries, including Spain and Italy. “I have to tell you that I don’t like the term ‘rearmament’ at all, I don’t agree with it,” Spanish head of government Pedro Sanchez later told the Brussels summit of the 27.
“I think that ‘Rearm Europe’ is a misleading name for citizens,” his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni also told the Italian Senate, quoted by international media.
We are sensitive to the fact that the name as such may provoke sensitivities in some member states,” European Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho told reporters on Friday.
The plan, which aims to mobilise up to €800bn to equip the EU with “credible deterrence” by 2030, will henceforth be called “Readiness 2030”.
EU defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned last week not to count on Russian president Vladimir Putin’s deterrence “by quoting the defence white paper” presented in Brussels on Wednesday as part of the “ReArm 2030” plan, which has since become “Readiness 2030”.
Europe’s five largest defence companies ended 2024 with an overall profit of €6.313 billion, up 10.55% on 2023, and an optimistic outlook for the coming years, following purchases for military aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia, the decision by some European countries to increase their spending on armaments in the wake of that war, and the uncertainties generated by the evolution of US foreign policy under new President Donald Trump.
Thus the UK’s BAE Systems, Italy’s Leonardo, France’s Thales, Germany’s Rheinmetall and Germany’s Airbus, all leading European companies, increased their turnover last year by 13.6% to total receipts of €94.12bn and have improved prospects for the coming years, when they will have to honour many new orders they receive.
For example, Thales has an order book that already exceeds last year’s receipts, while Leonardo has had to revise its industrial plan to honour demand, which it estimates at around €106bn for the period 2025-2029.
For his part, Rheinmetall group managing director Armin Papperger said the Rheinmetall group has invested some €8bn in recent years to build new factories and secure its supply chain, noting that Europe has entered “an era of rearmament”.
The European defence industry’s prospects are also visible on the stock market. For example, Rheinmetall’s share value has risen more than 137% since the start of 2025. A smaller but still significant increase of 44 per cent is seen in BAE Systems shares, while Leonardo expects its share value to increase by 81 per cent this year. In contrast, the value of Airbus shares has risen just 7.3% since the start of the year.
The plan, announced earlier this month by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, aims to mobilise some €800bn over the next four years to rearm the EU bloc and provide military aid to Ukraine.
As part of the plan, the European Commission has agreed to waive its excessive deficit procedures against EU member states of 1.5% of GDP if funds equivalent to that percentage are earmarked to supplement defence budgets.
This will create a “fiscal space” through which EU countries will be able to mobilise some €650bn in extra funds for armaments over the next four years. However, these funds will be reflected in rising public debts and budget deficits of EU countries, the only facility being that they will be excluded by the European Commission from its deficit calculations.
The remaining €150bn in the plan will be loans raised on the capital markets and granted to member states for defence investments. In allocating these loans, the European Commission will prioritise projects involving European and Ukrainian manufacturing companies, and at least 65% of the military equipment components manufactured will have to be of European origin.
The European Commission and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy also presented the Defence White Paper – Preparedness 2030. The EU executive also unveiled, as part of the ReArm Europe/‘Readiness 2030’ plan, an ambitious defence package that gives member states levers to invest in defence capabilities, a European Commission statement on its website said.
The defence white paper outlines solutions to fill key capability gaps and build a strong defence industrial base. It proposes ways for member states to invest heavily in defence, procure defence systems and build the long-term readiness of the European defence industry, which is essential for Europe’s security.
Europe needs to invest in the security and defence of the continent, including the security and defence of the flank, while continuing to support Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian aggression. To address these challenges effectively, the Defence White Paper sets out a number of key courses of action:
– filling capability gaps, with a focus on key capabilities identified by Member States;
– supporting the European defence industry through aggregate demand and increased joint procurement;
– supporting Ukraine through increased military assistance and greater integration of the European and Ukrainian defence industries;
– deepening the EU defence market including through simplified regulations;
– accelerating defence transformation through innovations such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology;
– increasing European preparedness for worst-case scenarios by improving military mobility, stockpiling of supplies and strengthening external borders, in particular the land borders with Russia and Belarus;
– strengthening partnerships with like-minded countries around the world.
“The era of peace divides is long gone. We must invest in defence, strengthen our capabilities and take a proactive approach to security. We are taking decisive action, presenting a roadmap for “Readiness 2030”, with increased defence spending, significant investment in European defence industrial capabilities. We must buy more European, because that means strengthening the European defence industrial and technological base. It means boosting innovation and creating an EU market for defence equipment,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
First and foremost it is about launching the use of public defence funding at national level. The Commission has invited Member States to activate a clause in the Growth and Stability Pact that will provide them with additional budgetary space to increase their defence spending, within EU fiscal rules.â
The second pillar is a new instrument for action for Europe’s security (SAFE). In light of the current exceptional circumstances, the Commission will raise €150 billion from capital markets through a unified approach to help Member States to rapidly and substantially increase their investment in Europe’s defence capabilities. These funds will be transferred on request to interested Member States on the basis of national plans.
The transfers will be made in the form of loans at competitive rates and attractively structured maturities to be repaid by the beneficiary Member States. The loans will be backed by the EU budget margin. SAFE will enable Member States to immediately and massively increase their defence investments through joint procurement from the European defence industry, focusing on priority capabilities. This will help to ensure interoperability and predictability and reduce costs for a solid European defence industry base. Ukraine and EFTA countries will be able to participate in joint procurement and it will be possible to buy from their industries.
SAFE will allow candidate countries, potential candidates and countries that have signed a defence and security partnership with the EU to participate in joint procurement and contribute to aggregate demand.
Another pillar is the use of the European Investment Bank Group (EIB) and the mobilisation of private capital by accelerating the Investment and Savings Union.
Finally, public investment alone will not be sufficient to cover the investment needs in the defence industry, from start-ups to large companies. To this end, the Investment and Savings Union strategy, recently adopted by the Commission, will facilitate the mobilisation of private savings in more efficient capital markets and channel investment in key sectors of the economy, such as defence, to those willing to invest in them.
For his part, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu recently announced, in connection with the Rearm Europe/Readiness 2030 Plan, that he agrees to the additional allocation of funds for armaments, provided that the money goes exclusively to Romanian defence industry factories. ‘The European Commission agrees with Romania. Defence spending will not be included in the budget deficit calculation! I will reply to the letter from the President of the European Commission on the Rearm Europe Plan that I agree to allocate additional funds for armaments, provided that the money goes exclusively to Romanian defence industry factories. This way we can hire extra people and produce in three shifts! The plan announced yesterday in Brussels shows that Europe understands the urgency of increasing defence spending, taking these sums out of the budget deficit calculation. This is exactly what Romania has been advocating since the beginning of the war in Ukraine,’ Ciolacu wrote in a post on social networks.
The prime minister added that the emergence of a €150 billion European loan facility for defence investments and support for private capital will help open new production facilities in Romania.
