Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is blocking a European financial aid package of 50 billion euros over four years for Ukraine, has explicitly requested that this aid be granted outside the EU budget and be subject to annual review.
Strong Opposition
“If we want to support Ukraine, let’s do it outside the EU budget and on an annual basis! This is the only sustainable democratic position with five months to go before the European elections,” Orban mentioned in a post on the social network X. He clarified his position after stating on Tuesday that he was willing to support Kiev but “without harming the EU’s common budget.” The Hungarian Prime Minister gave up his veto on Ukraine’s accession negotiations with the EU in December at the European Council. However, he blocked a €50 billion EU financial aid package for Ukraine for the next four years. This decision was made amidst tensions between Budapest and Kiev regarding the rights of the Hungarian minority in the Transcarpathia region and the European Commission’s withholding of EU funds that Hungary is entitled to. The Hungarian government has been accused by Brussels of violating the rule of law. Before the December summit, the European Commission unlocked €10.2 billion from cohesion funds for Hungary, along with €920 million from the European REPowerEU plan. However, over €21 billion of other EU funds (cohesion funds and post-pandemic recovery plan) remain frozen.
During this time, Viktor Orban is demanding the unblocking of all European funds, which he claims have been unfairly withheld from his country for political reasons by the European Commission due to Hungary’s opposition to illegal migration and the LGBT movement.
While discussions with Budapest continue regarding the lifting of the veto on aid to Ukraine ahead of a new European summit scheduled for February 1st, the European Commission is exploring alternative solutions, such as taking out a €20 billion loan and providing this amount to Ukraine. Hungary opposes this loan scheme as well, which is similar to the financing of the European post-pandemic recovery plan, warning that ultimately, all EU member states will have to repay this credit through their own contributions to the EU budget.
Is the EU blackmailed?
Hungary is far from reaching an agreement with the European Union regarding aid for Ukraine, according to Gergely Gulyas, the chief of staff to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. This statement comes as the EU seeks to secure a deal on a new financial assistance package for Kiev, as reported by Reuters.
Gergely Gulyas made these remarks after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated during a session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg that she was “confident” that all 27 EU member states would find a solution to provide funds to Ukraine, a matter currently hindered by Hungary’s resistance.
Hungary is in discussions with the Commission, but it is not certain that an agreement will be reached. If an agreement is not reached, the other 26 EU member states may find a solution without Hungary, said Orban’s chief of staff.
Providing aid through 26 bilateral agreements is an option that has been brought up but is more complicated and costly than using the central budget, and it could potentially affect EU unity.
Gergely Gulyas also explained that the President of the European Commission has conditioned the unlocking of new EU funds for Hungary on changes related to LGBTI issues and migration, attempting to exert pressure on Budapest.
He emphasized that Hungarian voters have clearly expressed their opinions on these two issues and assured that his government is willing to reach an agreement on matters that are “not harmful.” However, when it comes to issues on which Hungarian citizens have made their stance clear, this would be “antidemocratic and unacceptable,” the source further emphasizes.
Historical Relations
In the past, Hungary and Russia had historical ties, especially in the 19th century when both countries were part of the Habsburg Empire and shared political and cultural connections. However, these relations became tense after the Cold War when Hungary moved out of the sphere of influence of the Soviet Union.
Hungary and Russia have a significant trade relationship. Hungary imports energy, especially natural gas, from Russia and has been a supporter of the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would enable the direct supply of Russian gas to Western Europe. This has been criticized by some European countries and the United States, who believe it could increase Western Europe’s dependence on Russian energy resources.
Hungary and Russia have cooperated in the field of nuclear energy for civilian purposes. Hungary operates a nuclear power plant, the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, which has four nuclear reactors and plays a crucial role in the country’s electricity production. This plant was built in collaboration with Russia and was modernized through an agreement signed in 2014, which included the construction of two new reactors at Paks.
This nuclear cooperation has been of interest in the context of European energy and geopolitical security. Some Western countries and organizations have expressed concerns about Hungary’s dependency on Russia in terms of nuclear energy, viewing it as a potential influence of Russia in the energy infrastructure of Eastern Europe.
Hungary is a member of the European Union (EU) and is subject to EU policies and regulations. Within the EU, Hungary has previously opposed the sanctions imposed on Russia following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. This stance has drawn criticism from other EU member states that have supported the sanctions.
The relationship between Budapest and Moscow is complex and ever-changing, influenced by multiple economic, energy, and geopolitical interests and considerations. This relationship can evolve based on changes in the domestic and international policies of both countries.
Budapest and Kiev
The relations between Ukraine and Hungary have been tense at various points in recent history due to various issues, especially those related to the Hungarian minority in Ukraine and the bilateral relations between the two countries.
One of the main sources of tension between the two countries is the Hungarian minority in Ukraine, which resides mainly in the Transcarpathia (Zakarpattia) region in western Ukraine. Hungary has periodically raised concerns regarding the rights and status of this minority, including issues related to the use of the Hungarian language in schools and local administration. Russian propaganda has exploited these differences to the fullest, with accusations of the involvement of Russian federal security services in various destabilization actions.
A major source of tension was Ukraine’s adoption of an education law in 2017, which raised concerns in Hungary. The law restricted the use of minority languages in schools and imposed limits on the use of the Hungarian language in the education system. Hungary saw this law as a threat to the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine.
Tensions related to minority issues have led to diplomatic conflicts between the two countries. Hungary has blocked or put on hold certain Ukrainian initiatives within the European Union and NATO in response to these concerns.
The relations between Ukraine and Hungary should be understood in the broader geopolitical context of Eastern Europe and Ukraine’s relations with other neighboring states, such as Russia and Romania. The current leadership in Budapest has used the issue of minorities in relations with all neighboring states, raising accusations of serving the strategic interests of Hungary within the broader context of Moscow’s strategy to weaken the European Union and NATO from within.
German Warning
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned that the war between Russia and Ukraine could extend to neighboring countries, as reported by the media. “We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day – most recently again against our friends in the Baltic states,” Pistorius said in an article published by the Tagesspiegel newspaper on Friday, marking exactly one year since taking office as the Federal Minister of Defense. Regarding the German army (Bundeswehr), Boris Pistorius emphasized: “We need to rapidly strengthen our defense capabilities, in the context of the urgency of the threat situation.” “Therefore, we must consider the fact that (Russian President) Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country at some point,” Boris Pistorius stated, estimating that if it were to happen, it would be within “5-8 years” from now. With his call for the Bundeswehr to become “war-ready,” Pistorius intended to “shake up” German society. He is waiting for proposals to reintroduce a version of mandatory military service by April, after his country abandoned it in 2011. According to the German minister, the defense industry needs to become more efficient. Boris Pistorius has advocated for reforming public debt, for security reasons. “With a debt mechanism in its current form, we will not get through these crises unscathed,” he explained. On the other hand, the Berlin representative rejected requests for increasing German military aid to Ukraine, saying that the Bundeswehr cannot be brought to “exhaustion” and leave Germany “defenseless.” On February 24, 2022, Russia launched an unjustified and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, claiming to carry out a “special military operation of denazification” in the neighboring country and to protect the Russian-speaking community.
Parliamentary Protest
The European Parliament has contested the European Commission’s decision to unfreeze over 10 billion euros in EU funds for Hungary last December, in a resolution voted on Thursday, two weeks before an extraordinary European Council summit dedicated to adopting aid for Ukraine, as reported by Agerpres in a special correspondence. In the resolution adopted with 345 votes in favor, 104 against, and 29 abstentions, MEPs express their deep concern about the ongoing erosion of democracy, rule of law, and fundamental rights in Hungary, particularly with the recent adoption of the so-called “national sovereignty protection package” – which has been compared to Russia’s “foreign agents law,” as stated by the community legislature in a press release. Expressing regret for the Council’s failure to apply the procedure provided for in Article 7, Paragraph (1), following its activation by the Parliament in 2018, the community legislature calls on the European Council to determine whether Hungary has seriously and persistently violated EU values, in accordance with the more direct procedure provided for in Article 7, Paragraph (2). In theory, the procedure can lead to the suspension of voting rights at Council of the EU meetings. MEPs also condemn the actions of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who last December blocked the crucial decision to revise the EU’s long-term budget, including the aid package for Ukraine, thereby fully violating the EU’s strategic interests and the principle of loyal cooperation. The EU must not yield to blackmail, they emphasize in the adopted resolution.
The EP announces its regret over the European Commission’s decision to release up to 10.2 billion from previously frozen funds, despite Hungary not having fulfilled the required reforms for judicial independence, and in a context where the EU executive recently extended the application of measures from the Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation. Furthermore, MEPs condemn systemic discriminatory practices against the academic environment, journalists, political parties, and civil society in the allocation of funds. They also express regret for the use of manipulated public procurement procedures, government and government-affiliated entities’ public purchase offers, and the use of EU funds to enrich the government’s political allies. The necessary measures for unlocking EU funding, under various regulations, should be treated as a single package, and payments should not be made if deficiencies persist in any area. The European Parliament insists that it will examine whether legal action should be initiated to annul the partial unfreezing of funds and emphasizes that it can use a range of legal and political measures if the Commission fails to fulfill its duties as guardian of the treaties and to protect the EU’s financial interests. In the EP plenary session in Strasbourg, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen justified her decision on Wednesday to unfreeze certain funds for Hungary, explaining that Budapest had carried out the reforms demanded by Brussels to strengthen the independence of its judicial system.
However, she reminded that “about 20 billion euros” of EU funds destined for Hungary remain frozen, due to concerns especially related to LGBT+ rights, academic freedom, and the right to asylum.
The EP, in its adopted resolution, also questions whether the Hungarian government will be able to fulfill its duties in the second half of 2024, warning that if the position of President of the European Council is vacant, it will fall to the Hungarian Prime Minister during the Council’s six-month presidency. The text refers to Charles Michel’s announced candidacy in the European parliamentary elections, who announced that he will submit his resignation upon the formation of the new community legislature if elected. MEPs call on the Council to find adequate solutions to mitigate these risks and demand reforms to the Council’s decision.
Nuclear Discussions Impossible
Russia has stated that talks with the USA on nuclear arms control are impossible if the situation in Ukraine is not considered, while also accusing Washington of trying to impose its military dominance, according to the media.
Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, explained in a press conference that Washington has proposed separating the two issues and resuming talks on “strategic stability” between the two countries, which hold the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. Lavrov emphasized that this proposal is unacceptable for Russia due to the West’s support for Ukraine in the war that has already lasted for nearly two years.
He made these remarks in the context where the New Start treaty, the last bilateral Russian-American agreement on nuclear arms control, expires in February 2026, and tensions between the two nuclear superpowers are at their highest level since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. “We see not the slightest interest from the USA or NATO in settling the Ukrainian conflict and listening to Russia’s concerns,” added the head of Russian diplomacy, as quoted by the Russian media.
He accused the West of pushing Ukraine to use increasingly long-range weapons to strike deeper inside Russia. Such attacks have intensified in recent weeks; on December 30, 25 people were killed in the southern Russian city of Belgorod in one such attack. Sergey Lavrov provided no evidence to support his claim that the West encourages Ukraine to carry out such attacks but accused the United States of seeking military superiority over Russia, as noted by Reuters.
The Russian minister insisted that talks on arms control are unfounded as long as the West conducts what he called a “hybrid war” against Moscow. “We do not reject this idea in the future, but we condition this possibility on the West abandoning its policy of undermining and disrespecting Russia’s interests,” concluded Lavrov.
The Russian Federation, the inheritor of the Soviet nuclear power, has the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, nearly 6,000 warheads, according to experts. Together, the USA and Russia hold about 90% of the global nuclear warhead count, enough to destroy the planet several times over.
The Russian foreign minister also called on the USA to cease its “aggression” against Yemen, following the American military’s fourth bombing of Houthi rebels in less than a week. “The most important thing now is to end the aggression against Yemen, as the more the Americans and the British bomb, the less willing the rebels will be to negotiate,” Lavrov noted in the same press conference.
Purification of Russia
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on Thursday that the military offensive against Ukraine has allowed for the “purification” of Russia from people who “do not feel a sense of belonging to the history and culture” of the country.
Since the beginning of the conflict nearly two years ago, hundreds of thousands of people have fled the country for political reasons or fear of being drafted into the military, a choice firmly condemned by Russian authorities. The suppression of any dissenting voice has sent hundreds more to prison, as any criticism of the Kremlin’s policies is not tolerated in Russia, according to international media.
“The special military operation has united our society like never before and contributed to its purification from those without any sense of belonging to Russian history and culture,” said Sergey Lavrov, using the official euphemism to refer to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Some have left, others have stayed and started to reflect,” he added during a press conference in Moscow, where he reviewed the activities of Russian diplomacy in 2023.
This is not the first time Russian authorities, who claim they want to “denazify Ukraine,” have spoken about the need to “purify” society. In March 2022, at the beginning of the conflict, President Vladimir Putin said that “such an autopurification of society will only strengthen our country.” “Every people, and the Russian people in particular, will always be able to identify the trash and traitors and spit them out as one would spit out a fly that flew into their mouth,” Putin stated.
In the same press conference, the Russian Foreign Minister equated the Holocaust – the genocide against the Jewish people carried out by Nazi Germany during World War II – with the killing of other peoples by the Nazis, as reported on its website by Radio Svoboda, the Russian service of Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL).
Lavrov implied this while commenting on Israel’s operation against the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, recognized as a terrorist organization by the USA and EU, in the Gaza Strip. According to the Russian minister, “Israelis should not create the impression that, because they suffered during World War II, they can do anything today,” as reported by the radio station. “Yes, there was the Holocaust, a terrible crime. But there was also genocide against all the peoples of the Soviet Union. They did not suffer less… If we were to follow this logic, then we too can do anything, everything is allowed for us,” Lavrov stated in his press conference.
In this context, the head of Russian diplomacy stated that, during Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, “far fewer” civilian casualties are observed compared to the current operation by Israel in the Gaza Strip, according to the Russian official news agency RIA Novosti. Moscow criticizes Israel, accusing it of causing a high number of civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip. In 2022, Israel protested against a statement by Sergey Lavrov, who claimed that Adolf Hitler had “Jewish blood,” and in 2023, when he compared the West’s policy towards Russia with Hitler’s actions against the Jews, according to Radio Svoboda.
Coalition for Artillery
Allies of Ukraine launched an “artillery” coalition in Paris on Thursday to address urgent weapon needs of Kyiv, which has warned of an “ammunition shortage” ahead of the two-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, international media reports.
“The ammunition shortage is a very real and pressing issue our armed forces are currently facing,” wrote Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustam Umerov on social network X (formerly Twitter) during the launch of an “artillery coalition,” led by France and the USA.
“We need to strengthen Ukrainian defense capabilities to protect the free world against the Russian threat,” he stated.
The artillery coalition launched on Thursday is one of the components of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the so-called Ramstein Group, which brings together over 50 countries in several subgroups, from demining to anti-air defense.
“There is no alternative to modern artillery; we must continue our efforts and increase our ammunition production,” the Ukrainian defense minister said in a video conference during the opening ceremony, after canceling his visit for “security reasons”.
France announced on this occasion that it would “release a sum of 50 million euros” to “purchase 12 additional Caesar (howitzers)” – bringing the total number of such equipment for Ukraine to 67 – and said it has the capacity to produce another 60, funding of which will depend on allies.
“I called Emmanuel Macron to thank France for launching the ‘artillery’ coalition for Ukraine and committing to produce dozens of ‘Caesars’,” said President Volodymyr Zelensky on social network X. The two leaders also discussed the “need to further strengthen Ukraine’s anti-air defense,” targeted almost every night by drones and missiles launched by Moscow, added Zelensky.
Kyiv has already deployed 49 Caesars, produced by Nexter (Franco-German group KNDS), with another six howitzers to be delivered “in the coming weeks,” according to the French Ministry of Defense. France has the capacity to produce another 72 such howitzers and is prepared to finance the manufacture of 12, indicated French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu. “Thus, 60 remain to be financed, about 250 million euros, a sum that seems accessible for different budgets of the allies,” he continued in front of representatives of 23 countries supporting Ukraine’s defense.
To arm the howitzers, the EU had set a goal to supply Ukraine with a million munitions by spring 2024. But only 300,000 shells have been delivered so far, according to European parliamentarians. Ukrainians launch between 5,000 and 8,000 shells daily, compared to 10,000-15,000 by the Russian side, emphasized Cedric Perrin, chairman of the French Senate’s International Affairs Committee, noting that “national and European production is extremely weak” and that “the current economy does not meet Ukrainian expectations.” From the French side, Minister Lecornu insisted on Thursday on tripling French ammunition deliveries to Ukraine, which have increased from 1,000 units per month to 2,000 in the first year of war and should rise to 3,000 shells starting in January. “We are in the process of rebuilding gunpowder stocks. We are recycling powders from unused ammunition,” he told reporters. The minister also announced the delivery of about 50 air-to-ground guidance kits A2SM per month starting in January, throughout the year. With a medium range, these can be adapted to “Soviet-class” aircraft such as Mig and Sukhoi, used by Ukraine, he assured.
France has already transferred or sold 30 Caesars to Ukraine, which ordered an additional six howitzers in the fall. Denmark has also provided 19 units of an eight-wheeled armored version. Mounted on a truck, the Caesar howitzer can fire 155 mm shells at a distance of 40 kilometers. Emmanuel Macron announced he will visit Ukraine in February, for the second time since the war began on February 24, 2022. France is “about to finalize” a security agreement with Kyiv similar to the one signed on Friday between the United Kingdom and Ukraine for a duration of ten years, he added, announcing among other things the delivery of about 40 Scalp missiles.
Mr. Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi is a Doctor of Political Sciences, Senior Specialist at the Hennady Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine, which operates under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kiev. He answered our questions about the war, Ukrainian peace conditions and the strategic relations between Ukraine and Romania.
KP:. We passed the 600-day mark since the beginning of the illegal Russian military invasion. What is the current situation on the front lines? How much longer do you think it will take to fully liberate the territories occupied by the Russian Federation?
S.Z.: Overall, the situation on the front remains very tense. Russian forces continue to attack Ukrainian forces. However, Ukraine is putting up a strong resistance and conducting counteroffensive operations. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are launching attacks on the enemy’s rear positions, such as airfields, ammunition depots, seaports, fleet vessels, and so on. This may help in stopping and pushing back the enemy’s forces.
Currently, it is difficult to predict how long the combat operations will continue, especially in the context of the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories. However, the active phase, according to many forecasts, could last for at least a year. It is not ruled out that a very pessimistic scenario is possible, where the war could stretch over several years.
K.P.. Some Western media outlets believe that the current counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army is taking place under unequal conditions. What types of weaponry do the Ukrainian armed forces still require?
S.Z.: I believe that the Russian-Ukrainian war is, in general, an asymmetric conflict, given the differences in size, capabilities, and the number of personnel between Russia and Ukraine. This presents a significant challenge for Kyiv, which is trying to not only defend itself but also to counterattack in unequal conditions.
Ukraine requires various types of modern weaponry that, due to their significantly advanced technological characteristics, could compensate for the numerical composition of the mostly outdated enemy’s arsenal. Among other things, Kyiv needs artillery systems, long-range missile projectiles, air defense systems, next-generation aviation technology, modern armored vehicles and versatile unmanned aerial vehicles.
K.P.: What is the current role of Transnistria in the Russian war strategy, and how will Ukraine respond to this threat? How do you see the evolution of relations between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine?
S.Z.: Transnistria remains an area of instability near the Ukrainian border. Its role as a Russian “enclave” has been reinforced during the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is because at any convenient moment for the Kremlin, the operational group of Russian forces in Transnistria could become active and strike Ukraine.
The situation forces Kyiv to maintain a contingent of around 10,000 troops near the border of the unrecognized republic, which are essential for combat operations. Transnistria also poses a potential threat to Chisinau.
It’s not ruled out that the problem could be resolved through military means. However, as stated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a press conference after the European Political Community summit held in Bulboaca, Ukraine might engage in military action on the territory of Transnistria but only at the request of the Moldovan government.
Regarding the state of Ukrainian-Moldovan relations, they are considered stable and neighborly. This is because, among other reasons, both countries share common challenges and are moving towards European Union membership.
K.P.: The tactic employed by Ukraine has forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to partially withdraw from the Crimean region. Can Kyiv ensure the security of maritime transport? How can Ukraine be assisted by Western partners in this regard?
S.Z.: Kyiv is attempting to ensure the security of maritime transport, including by striking at the military infrastructure of the occupied Russian-controlled Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. To some extent, they have been successful in this endeavor.
However, the situation is complex. In this context, it is crucial for Western partners to continue providing military assistance, such as aerial and naval drones, long-range missile projectiles, up-to-date intelligence/satellite data, and more. Additionally, political, diplomatic, economic, sanctions, and other forms of pressure on Moscow are equally important.
K.P.: What are the conditions under which Ukraine is prepared to engage in peace negotiations, considering that all Western partners have stated that Ukraine is the one to decide when and under what conditions these negotiations will be initiated?
S.Z.: Ukraine is prepared to engage in peace negotiations, and official statements from Kyiv have made this clear on multiple occasions. However, they insist that all points of the Ukrainian “peace formula” be met before negotiations can proceed. These points include: Implementation of the UN Charter and the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the world order; Withdrawal of Russian forces and cessation of hostilities; Justice, including holding a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression and compensation for damages; Release of all detainees and deported individuals; Security guarantees for Ukraine; Radiological and nuclear safety; Food security and other related issues.
It is also crucial that Russia renounces any territorial claims to Ukraine, which would entail amending the Russian Constitution and other laws to remove any affiliation of five Ukrainian regions with the Russian Federation.
K.P.: President Zelensky has made a series of visits to the United States, Canada, and NATO headquarters. How will the relations between Kyiv and its Western partners evolve?
S.Z.: Western partners have been supporting Ukraine and providing resources to counter Russian aggression. There is also considerable emphasis on post-war reconstruction in Ukraine and support for its European and Euro-Atlantic integration.
Given that the collective West continues to keep Ukraine in its focus, there is hope that this attention will persist until Ukraine achieves full integration with the Western world. This ongoing support and engagement with Western partners are essential for Ukraine’s stability, security, and its path toward further integration with Euro-Atlantic institutions.
K.P.: President Zelensky recently made an official visit to Bucharest at the invitation of his Romanian counterpart, Klaus Iohannis. The two heads of state signed a Strategic Partnership, elevating the level of relations between the two countries. Also the governments of Romania and Ukraine hold a joint sesion in the ukrainian capital city. What are Kyiv’s expectations from this agreement? What more can Romania do to support Ukraine?
S.Z.: Indeed, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a visit to Romania, where he had a meeting with his counterpart Klaus Iohannis. This was the first visit of a Ukrainian leader to Romania since the onset of the major war.
During President Zelensky’s visit to Romania, an agreement was reached to establish a training center for Ukrainian F-16 pilots. Bucharest is also expected to provide Ukraine with air defense systems and artillery. Additionally, the launch of a new corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain through Moldova to Romania was announced.
The fact that Iohannis and Zelensky declared that Romania and Ukraine have entered into a strategic partnership agreement is seen as a significant step that elevates the level of relations between the two countries to a qualitatively new level.
It is essential for the pace of cooperation between Bucharest and Kyiv to not only remain in good standing but also to strengthen further. This should be understood in the context of military cooperation as well as other potential areas of collaboration.
It is noteworthy that the Romanian leader expressed support for the Ukrainian “formula of peace” and stated that only Ukraine will determine when and how to conduct peace negotiations.
Furthermore, Klaus Iohannis expressed support for the commencement of negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova’s accession to the European Union by the end of the year. This is of great importance to all involved parties, as being part of a unified political and economic space can guarantee effective resistance to external aggressors, with Russia being such an aggressor. Romania understands this well.
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The Ukrainian army is advancing slowly on the southern front in an attempt to achieve more results before the fall sets in, while the Russian army has concentrated over 420,000 soldiers on the ground to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive. “We must reclaim our land,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared in an interview with CNN.
Hopes in Kiev
Zelensky’s statement comes amid reports of Ukrainian forces advancing towards Tokmak, a significant railway junction in the south used by the Russian army to maintain the front in the region. “Ukraine will not back down, will not abandon its own territory. We will never do that,” Zelensky added, reiterating that the war would be long, as a frozen conflict does not mean peace.
Zelensky acknowledges the slowdown of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which he attributed to Russia’s aerial superiority and the slow delivery of Western arms. “Some things are on the way. Many people say the counteroffensive is too slow, but some things are on the way,” he insisted.
In this regard, he assured that he would once again discuss with American partners the need to supply Kiev with long-range ATACMS missiles, which are expected to be received as early as this fall.
In any case, the war will not have a happy ending, Zelensky said. “This is not a movie that lasts an hour and a half (…) There will be no ‘happy end.’ We have lost a lot of people,” the Ukrainian president stated.
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar indicated that in the past week, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has managed to recapture 4.8 square kilometers of territory in the southwest of the Donetsk region and the neighboring Zaporizhia region. Maliar explained that with the recovery of this territory, Ukrainian forces attacking on these two segments of the front line have liberated a total of 256.5 square kilometers since Ukraine began its counteroffensive in early June.
Race Against the Weather
While senior American officials claim that Ukraine has between 30 and 45 days to continue its counteroffensive before worsening weather conditions, Kirilo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, has stated that adverse weather will not hinder Kiev from pursuing its plans. “Last autumn, combat actions did not cease. This year will be the same,” he asserted, promising that the offensive “in all directions will continue.”
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in its daily report on Monday, estimates that “cold and wet weather will impact but not stop” Kiev’s operations.
In turn, Russia is said to have concentrated around 420,000 troops in the occupied territories to thwart Kiev and launch its own offensive, according to Ukrainian sources. Moscow is thus attempting to “take revenge” and regain some of the territories liberated by Ukraine last year, such as extensive areas in the Kharkiv region, as indicated by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Furthermore, Russian forces aim to gain full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east, one of the primary objectives of their military intervention in Ukraine, according to GUR.
Black Sea, Theater of War
Officials in Kiev have announced that Ukraine has recaptured two oil and gas drilling platforms from the Russians in the Black Sea, which had been under Moscow’s control since 2015 and were located close to the annexed Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
“Ukraine has taken control of ‘Vishki Boika’ (Boiko Towers),” announced the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s intelligence service (GUR) in a statement. During a “unique operation,” “clashes took place between Ukrainian special forces on board ships and a Russian Su-30 fighter jet,” the statement added, stating that “the Russian plane was damaged and had to retreat.”
During the operation, other “valuable trophies” were also captured, such as helicopter ammunition and a radar system capable of tracking the movement of ships in the Black Sea, GUR further reported.
The statement recalls that Russia had occupied these platforms since 2015 when it annexed Crimea in 2014, and Moscow had been using them for military purposes since the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Russia has not yet commented on this information, and the cited news agencies have not been able to independently verify GUR’s information. “For Ukraine, regaining control of the Boiko Towers has strategic importance, and as a result, Russia has lost the ability to use them for military purposes,” GUR emphasized in a video posted on Telegram.
“Russia is now deprived of the ability to fully control the waters of the Black Sea, and this means that Ukraine has taken significant steps toward the liberation of Crimea,” the GUR statement concludes. Before Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula, Ukraine extracted a significant portion of natural gas from the Black Sea, supplying gas not only to Crimea but also to mainland Ukrainian regions.
Foto: wikipedia
Billions for Ukraine
In 2024, Ukraine will need financial assistance from the United States in the range of $12 to $14 billion, as budgetary expenses remain high amid the Russian invasion, stated Ukrainian Finance Minister Serghei Marcenko on Monday.
Marcenko also expressed hope that the interim budget of the United States would be approved soon, allowing Ukraine to receive an additional $3.3 billion by the end of the year to cover the budget deficit. “There are no discussions yet, there is a lot of uncertainty, and we are not confident that this is guaranteed,” said Serghei Marcenko at a business forum held in Kiev.
Marcenko added that in 2024, the ministry he heads would like to receive funding from the United States for the state budget at a level similar to this year. “Not lower than this year: somewhere between $12 and $14 billion. That’s what we expect,” Serghei Marcenko stated.
Ukraine received nearly $10 billion in financial aid from the United States this year to cover the budget deficit, and Ukrainian authorities estimate that their needs will not diminish next year as the Ukrainian army makes slow progress in its counteroffensive.
Although U.S. President Joe Biden has requested emergency funds of $24 billion to respond to the war in Ukraine, the next tranche of American aid for Ukraine has faced political obstacles as the United States enters a cycle of presidential elections.
Ukraine’s new Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, stated last week that he would request a budget increase for defense this year by 251 billion hryvnias ($6.8 billion), given that military expenses are rising day by day.
Finance Minister Serghei Marcenko mentioned that the Kiev government would discuss the Defense Minister’s request at the next meeting but appreciated that “I’m not sure we’ll be able to cover all the needs” mentioned by Rustem Umerov.
War for Peace
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated on Tuesday that a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine is not yet in sight, as Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine continues.
Although key actors have sometimes been brought together for discussions, Germany must not turn its back on the daily brutality of the war, Scholz emphasized during the “International Meeting of Religions and Cultures in Dialogue” forum in Berlin, an annual event organized by the lay Catholic movement Sant’Egidio.
“This requires effort and time,” the German Chancellor said about peace negotiations. “Time that we actually don’t have, because in the meantime, Russia continues to bomb, torture, and kill in Ukraine,” he added. As the basis for any peace, “the Russian leadership must understand that it is about the withdrawal of troops,” Olaf Scholz stressed: “Then there will be the possibility for discussions, and the Ukrainian government will participate, I am sure of that.”
Over 18 months since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the Chancellor rejected the “narratives” that a peace deal had already been negotiated between Ukraine and Russia in the spring of 2022 but had been sabotaged by the United States or the United Kingdom. “No, it’s not true,” Scholz firmly stated, thus refuting one of the “narratives” that Moscow has recently been pushing.
He stated that any “common understanding” that might have been found in the early days of the war “was destroyed because the Russian president used that time to move his troops around Ukraine after the failure of the attack on the capital Kiev and to begin the assault on eastern Ukraine.”
Scholz once again defended the delivery of German arms to Ukraine: “We will continue to support Ukraine in its right to self-defense as long as necessary.”
Foto: Facebook
Moscow Sets Conditions
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on Tuesday that the cancellation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decree prohibiting dialogue with Moscow should be the first step for negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, according to the official Russian news agency TASS. The same idea was expressed during the day by Russian President Vladimir Putin at an economic forum in Vladivostok (Russia’s Far East), as reported by the Russian press. Lavrov opined that the longer Kiev postpones negotiations with Moscow, the more challenging it will be to negotiate later.
“This is our official position; I will say it again: against the backdrop of the ban on negotiations signed by (Ukrainian President Vladimir) Zelensky, this position should not raise any questions,” Sergei Lavrov said in an interview on Rossia-1 television.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree in October 2022 officially declaring the ‘impossibility’ of any negotiations between Kiev and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, effectively leaving the door open for discussions with Russia.
Zelensky promulgated the decree after the Kremlin declared the annexation of four Ukrainian regions occupied by the Russian army, which Moscow still only partially controls at present – Luhansk and Donetsk in the east, and Kherson and Zaporizhia in the south.
“He (Putin) does not know what dignity and honesty are. Therefore, we are willing to engage in dialogue with Russia, but with a different Russian president,” Zelensky stated at the time, as quoted by Reuters.
Putin’s Threat
Ukraine may begin peace negotiations only when it runs out of resources and will use any potential cessation of hostilities to rearm with the help of the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday.
The war has devastated areas in eastern and southern Ukraine, killed or injured hundreds of thousands, and triggered the most significant rupture in Russia’s relations with the West since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
Speaking at an economic forum in Russia’s Pacific port city of Vladivostok, Putin stated that Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian forces thus far has failed, and the Ukrainian army has suffered heavy losses.
“I have the impression that they want to bite as much as they can and then, when their resources are almost zero, seek a cessation of hostilities and start negotiations to replenish their resources and restore their fighting capacity,” Putin said.
The President added that many potential mediators have asked him if Russia is ready to cease fighting, but he has stated that Russia cannot stop as long as it faces a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
For any chance of discussions, Putin noted that Ukraine should first lift its self-imposed legal ban on peace talks and explain what it wants.
Tough Confrontation
Russia controls approximately 18% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, and territories in eastern and southern Ukraine seized in 2022.
Putin also stated that the West’s decision to supply Ukraine with cluster bombs and depleted uranium munitions is a crime, but such deliveries, while potentially prolonging the war, will not change its ultimate outcome.
He also criticized the West’s decision to provide Ukraine with F-16 aircraft.
When asked if Russia needs to introduce a new mandatory mobilization, Putin stated that 1,000-1,500 Russians sign voluntary contracts daily to join the army.
In the last six or seven months, 270,000 people have signed voluntary contracts, Putin said—a slightly lower figure than the 280,000 announced by former President Dmitry Medvedev earlier this month.
Foto: Wikipedia
Illegal Annexations
The Kremlin insisted on Monday that negotiations with Ukraine are possible only if Kiev recognizes the reality created on the ground, referring to the Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia in September 2022.
“In any case, the regime in Kiev will have to discuss based on the recognition of the realities that emerged after it refused to resolve the issues peacefully in March (2022),” following the failed negotiations in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine, held a month after the war began, said Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for the Russian presidency.
At the same time, the Kremlin’s spokesperson stated that there are currently no prerequisites for a return to negotiations. “At present, there are no prerequisites for the resumption of the negotiation process,” Peskov stated.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not appear willing to negotiate. “Everyone wants this war to end, but it must end on fair and sustainable terms that reflect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Blinken said in an interview with ABC News.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with The Economist over the weekend, said he is emotionally prepared for a long-lasting war and believes that “this is not a favorable moment” for possible negotiations with Russia, as the counteroffensive continues, and Moscow sees Ukraine’s difficulties on the battlefield, according to Ukrainska Pravda.
European Dreams
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated during a visit to Kiev that Ukraine’s place is in the European Union, and Kiev can count on us and our vision of EU expansion as a necessary geopolitical consequence of Russia’s war, as reported by German media.
“Ukraine already has candidate status. And now we are preparing to make a decision on opening discussions on EU accession,” Baerbock said.
According to her, Ukraine’s results regarding judicial reform and media legislation are already impressive, but there is still a long way to go in implementing anti-oligarch legislation and fighting corruption. The European Union itself must “work quickly to ensure that we are positioned adequately for more seats at the table,” explained the Berlin representative.
Furthermore, the German Foreign Minister referred to reports of Ukrainian children being deported to Russia, stating that those responsible for the crimes must be brought to justice. Germany supports organizations and authorities “that provide traumatized children with a safe and secure home,” she said.
“The first step toward peace is for Putin to let these children return home,” Baerbock added. The issue is to be addressed at the UN General Assembly.
Annalena Baerbock’s visit to Ukraine is the fourth since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. The German Foreign Minister arrived in Kiev by train from Poland as Ukrainian airspace remains closed.
Last May, Baerbock became the first member of the German executive to travel to Ukraine since the start of the war. On that occasion, she visited Bucha, near Kiev, the site of horrifying Russian troop atrocities against civilians. Annalena Baerbock also visited Ukraine in mid-September last year and in January of this year.
